Mission Bay
Homes for Sale

Mission Bay is considered by many to be San Francisco’s “newest” neighborhood. The area now known as Mission Bay was once literally a shallow bay of water, but as San Francisco grew and developed it was quickly turned into “productive” land, with debris from the 1906 quake providing much of the fill. Most recently, the neighborhood was home to the Southern Pacific Railroad Yard. In the 1980s a redevelopment plan was approved and the land was transferred from Catellus/Southern Pacific to San Francisco, leading to the construction of numerous condos, businesses, and commercial buildings, with plenty of open green space sprinkled in.

The neighborhood is a master-planned neighborhood, which means that every lot had an approved purpose before groundbreaking took place on the first lot. At the north end of the neighborhood, Oracle Park, home of the SF Giants, brings thousands to the area 81 days a year (and more during the playoffs!). A bit further south, the Warriors have their city home at the Chase Center.

Known for some of the sunniest weather in San Francisco, which makes it easy to enjoy the neighborhood’s immense open spaces. The neighborhood is home to over 45 acres of open space, including trail networks that connect with both Marin County to the north and San Mateo County to the south.

Neighborhood Vibe

Mission Bay is a master-planned neighborhood, which means that every lot had an approved purpose before groundbreaking took place on the first lot. The neighborhood was zoned for mid-rise development and is a mix of residential and office uses as well as the UCSF campus. Biotech companies have a strong presence in the neighborhood.

Popular Home Styles

Don’t look for single family homes here, because there aren’t any. Construction of homes in the neighborhood began in the 1990s and continues to this day in medium to large size condominium and apartment buildings.

Getting Around

The T-Third streetcar runs north/south through the neighborhood on 3rd Street (not to be confused with the eponymous avenue on the other side of town!) and the flat, central location makes walking and biking popular. Caltrain has a large station at 4th & King that is also served by numerous Muni bus lines and several light-rail lines.

Median Sales Price

Median sales price is calculated based on sold data and doesn’t account for seller concessions. Median price represents the point at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. In smaller neighborhoods like many of those found in San Francisco, this metric is less likely to be influenced by extremely high or low sales prices that don’t represent the typical neighborhood home.

Days on Market

Days on Market indicates how quickly or slowly homes are selling in the neighborhood. The lower the days on market (DOM), the stronger the market is for sellers, all other things being equal.

Number of Active Listings

The number of homes available for sale in active status at the end of a given month. Fewer homes available for sale may indicate a seasonal trend or market dynamics that favor a seller more than a buyer.

Sales Price Compared to List Price

In strong or balanced markets, homes in San Francisco typically sell over asking. In a buyer’s market, homes will sell at the list price or slightly under. If a home has had price reductions, the calculation is based on the last listed price.

Price per Square Foot

Price per square foot is most useful when the homes are almost identical in size, age, layout, and other factors important to buyers. Our experience suggests it is a more valuable metric in larger condo buildings and less valuable for homes in neighborhoods built with a diverse selection of styles, sizes, and ages.

We provide dynamic real estate market trends for neighborhoods across San Francisco based on the SFAR MLS sub-district area boundaries and data. The San Francisco Association of Realtors (SFAR), of which Matt is a Past President, runs the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service (MLS), the primary multiple listing service for homes in San Francisco and now part of the NorCalMLS Alliance.

The NorCalMLS Alliance powers Jackson Fuller residential real estate listing data and provides real estate listings from over 55,000 listing professionals serving a population of over 11 million consumers in 22 northern California counties covering more than 28,000 square miles: Alameda, Amador, Contra Costa, Marin, El Dorado, Mendocino, Merced, Monterey, Napa, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, San Benito, San Francisco, San Joaquin, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Solano, Sonoma, Stanislaus and Yolo.

The SFAR MLS categorizes homes into 90ish “sub-districts” — what normal people think of as neighborhoods  — grouped into 10 geographic districts, District 1 – District 10.

SFAR districts for real estate market trends are totally different from the Board of Supervisor political voting districts and any other districts like community benefit districts, etc.

Jackson Fuller didn’t create any neighborhood names for market trends, but we did our best to address some historical anomalies and modern-day marketing changes.

The SFAR MLS sub-district for Castro market trends is technically named “Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights.” Noe Valley is below Noe Peak, and Eureka Valley is below Eureka Peak, hence the neighborhood names. We refer to the sub-district on our site as The Castro with a separate page for Dolores Heights.

What was Hunter’s Point naval base has been re-branded by the developer as The Shipyard.

The neighborhood Wikipedia refers to as Bayview-Hunters Point is what we call Bayview market trends.

We refer to the SFAR Bayview sub-district as Bayview-Hunters Point and the SFAR Hunters Point sub-district as The Shipyard.

Where is Mission Bay?

Mission Bay is a 303-acre neighborhood on the east side of San Francisco. It is bordered by South of Market (SOMA) to the north, Dogpatch to the south, and the San Francisco Bay to the east. Originally part of a salt marsh and lagoon, by 1850 the area was used for shipbuilding, butchery production, and oyster and clam fishing. Mission Bay’s most recent development cycle was driven by the UCSF Mission Bay campus, currently in its final stages of construction. On an SFAR (San Francisco Association of Realtors) MLS (add internal link) map, Mission Bay is identified as neighborhood 9D.

Are there any notable historical landmarks or sites in Mission Bay?

Chase Center, the arena for the Golden State Warriors, is a neighborhood jewel, and MIssion Bay is also home to the headquarters of the Old Navy brand of The Gap clothing retailer. The northern terminus of the Third Street Light Rail Project of the San Francisco Municipal Railway is located in Mission Bay, along with the northern terminus of Caltrain.
What is there to do in Mission Bay?

Besides the Chase Center and the USCF campus, the neighborhood offers the exceptional Mission Bay Kids Park with interactive play zones, climbing structures, and sandboxes. Mariposa Park is an expansive area featuring an abundance of walking paths, playgrounds, and picnic areas. The Mission Bay Public Library houses an impressive collection of children’s books and offers a variety of classes tailored to kids. The UCSF Farmers Market offers fresh, locally grown produce, and Stagecoach Greens is the city’s one and only outdoor mini-golf course.

How does the community vibe in Mission Bay contribute to its real estate appeal?

A San Francisco cynic might tell you the modern construction and planned layout of Mission Bay has no real estate appeal, but a Mission Bay fan will tell you these features contribute to a bright and orderly feeling of community. As one of the city’s newest neighborhoods, Mission Bay is known less for historical buildings than for its extensive outdoor areas, connections to Bay Area trail and bike networks, and sunny warm weather. Mission Bay is now a rapidly evolving and wealthy neighborhood of luxury condominiums, hospitals, and biotechnology research and development firms. From 2010 to 2020, Mission Bay’s population grew by over 200%.

Where can I find new construction in Mission Bay?

Almost all of Mission Bay is “new construction.” Formerly home to a major railyard for the Southern Pacific Railroad Company, Mission Bay was designated as a redevelopment project by the city in 1998. The community was fully planned and individual building lots were designated for their ultimate purpose long before the first shovel broke ground. North of the channel, the Mission Bay area includes The Beacon, The Madrone, and 235 and 255 Berry condo developments.

While Mission Bay itself is considered complete, Mission Rock – formerly a parking lot for the San Francisco Giants stadium – is still under development. The 28 acres of Mission Rock will feature a mix of residential, commercial, and retail development, along with outdoor parks and play spaces.

What are the average home prices in Mission Bay, and how have they trended over time?

You won’t find a single-family home in Mission Bay. The neighborhood was redeveloped from railroad tracks and its buildings are all multi-family apartments, condos, or commercial and mixed-use buildings. Mission Bay has four market-rate condo developments, all well-respected luxury buildings with amenities, views, and desirable addresses.

Scroll up to see our market charts showing current neighborhood prices and other real estate trends for Mission Bay. These charts are updated dynamically as new data becomes available. Reach out to us to learn more about prices, trends, and possibilities in Mission Bay.