And The Inventory Gets… Tighter 2012

Posted On: November 7, 2012
By: ffdadmin

I’ve written several times this year about how little inventory has been for sale in San Francisco. I was optimistic at the beginning of the year that we’d see a healthy uptick in homes for sale, but that uptick didn’t happen this year. The San Francisco real estate market has two seasons – foggy and cold. Haha, just a little joke. Our two “seasons” are roughly February – June and then again from September – early November.

San Francisco’s MSI (Month’s Supply of Inventory) hits a new low

Unlike most markets that are driven by wintry weather and families wanting to move over the summer when school isn’t in session, our market is more weather driven, with our first peak season being after the rains but before the constant fog, and the second season taking advantage of our best weather before the holidays arrive.

So we are in the process of saying good-bye to our second main selling time of the year, so if we were going to have a bump in inventory for buyers it would be reasonable to expect it to have happened already. And it hasn’t!

As you can see from the graph above, MSI (months supply of inventory), hit a new low in October with an MSI of 1.3. That means that if not one new home came on the market, every available home would be sold in 1.3 months. It won’t come as a surprise to any current San Francisco buyers, but an MSI of 1.3 is indicative of a very strong seller’s market. Which it has been all year long.

Most agents tend to counsel clients that are thinking of selling to hold off until the next peak season starts in February, but our incredibly low MSI makes a very good argument for selling now instead of later… Data for the graph above is from the San Francisco MLS, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Your mileage (or statistics) may vary.