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You are here: Home / Archives for Neighborhoods / Alamo Square

A Tale of Ten Areas in Three Charts About the Same City?

October 27, 2016 by Matt Fuller, GRI 1 Comment

What area of the city offers buyers the best return for their investment? Without getting into the 89 mls sub-districts, but broadly looking at the 10 districts (areas if you are jargon averse and want to avoid confusion with political or other city drawn disticts) which one has performed the best? SF real estate statistics surround us like a sea, but are they useful?

San Francisco MLS Districts. Source: San Francisco Association of Realtors. jacksonfuller.com
San Francisco MLS Districts. Source: San Francisco Association of Realtors.

Our team just didn’t vibe with a company-made chart presented at this week’s sales meeting. Which got us digging into a bunch of charts and numbers and suddenly we were down the San Francisco real estate data wormhole. How often we find ourselves in this place. Or, well, at least I do. Here’s the company chart that we don’t vibe with (it seems to be this thing I do):

Zephyr's Chart
Zephyr’s Chart

Zephyr used a quarterly basis for their numbers with quarterly values calculated using 3 month rolling averages. And while I agree those are reasonable paramaters, I also disagree. I pulled number using both average and median sales price, but looked at the average or median sales price for the year. I used YTD 2016 for 2016.

I did this because our sales volume and velocity, as well as all the linked market dynamics vary a lot by quarter. To average out that variation, I’m more comfortable using the average or median sales price based on the entire year’s sales and not a rolling average from one particular quarter that has some seasonality bias for lack of a better made up term?

Zephyr dropped D8 and D6 becauase they aren’t major single family areas. Which is, again, fair. But they do exist, so we think the annual average is a reasonable compromise and our chart includes them.

Using those adjustments, we come up with our own chart below using median sales price:

Appreciation by District using Median Sales Price San Francisco real estate jacksonfuller.com
Appreciation by District using Median Sales Price

Our chart, using median sales price, agrees that the Richmond (d1) area of the city saw the highest single family home price appreciation. Our data isn’t as optimistic on any of the neighborhood gains as the Zephyr chart, but we both agree on the first place area.

That’s where we diverge. Our data ranks both the Sunset/Parkside area (d2) and the Excelsior/ Bayview/Hunters Point area (d10) as outperforming the Potrero Hill/Bernal Heights/Mission (d9), and life in Pacific Heights (d7) has actually been rather nice, 20% appreciation on a $4,000,000 investment isn’t anything to call the attorneys about.

But if you feel like arguing with us, we’re one step ahead of you. We just need to use average sales price, an argument we could make because the annual average sales price uses amongst the largest data sets (all sales, all months) and thus is big enough to “absorb” any skewing by outliers and the neighborhoods areas are small and similar enough and homogenous enough in price that the mean average still presents an accurate picture of neighborhood price appreciation:

Appreciation by District using Average Sales Price san francisco real estate jacksonfuller.com
Appreciation by District using Average Sales Price

 

If we work off of the mean average sale price numbers, the Bayview/Hunters Point (d10) area zooms to first place, followed by Sunset (d2), Stonestown/Lakeside (d3), Potrero Hill/Bernal Heights/Mission (d9) then Castro/Noe Valley (d5), West of Twin Peaks (d4), then finally Richmond (d1) followed by the hills Russian and Nob (d8), Pacific Heights and north (d7), and Hayes Valley/Civic Center (d6).

So is the Richmond the hottest market or the seventh hottest? Did it appreciate at 28% or 48% or 76% since 2013? We could argue about it forever. But remember: you can’t buy a neighborhood. You can only buy a specific home in it, so our suggestion is to focus most of all on a particular home’s unique value to your life. It’s an investment you live in.

Filed Under: Alamo Square, Bayview, Bernal Heights, Blog, Cathedral Hill, Civic Center/Downtown/Van Ness, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley, Corona Heights, Cow Hollow, Diamond Heights, Dogpatch/Central Waterfront, Duboce Park, Excelsior, For SF Buyers, For SF Sellers, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Glen Park, Haight Ashbury, Hayes Valley, Ingleside, Inner Mission, Inner Sunset, Lower Pacific Heights, Marina, Market Commentary, Merced Manor, MIdtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Mission Bay, Mission District, Mission Dolores, Mission Terrace, Monterey Heights, Neighborhoods, Nob Hill, Noe Valley, NOPA (North Panhandle), Outer Sunset, Pacific Heights, Parkside, Parnassus Heights, Potrero Hill, Presidio Heights, Richmond, Russian Hill, Sea Cliff, South Beach, South of Market Area (SOMA), St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, Sunset, The Castro, Visitacion Valley, Western Addition, Westwood Park, Yerba Buena

Good BBQ in NOPA

August 7, 2014 by Matt Fuller, GRI Leave a Comment

I love BBQ – and finding good BBQ in San Francisco is a surprising challenge. The latest contender is 4505 BBQ & Burgers (or Burgers and BBQ, depending on your priorities) which is along the Divisadero Corridor @ Grove, an area that is becoming the Divisadero Dining Destination (NOPA & Bi-Rite are both nearby,  not to mention Popeye’s Fried Foods!). Living in either Alamo Square or NOPA would put you within a very short walk of the 4505 BBQ joint.

Pulled pork with fries and root beer
Pulled pork with fries and root beer
Signage on Divisadero
Signage on Divisadero
Do you have burgers? or BBQ? or 4505?
Do you have burgers? or BBQ? or 4505?
The menu (including root beer on tap)
The menu (including root beer on tap)
The Kitchen
The Kitchen

I managed to snag lunch there last week – even at 11:30am there was a line (nothing like Ike’s). I had a lovely little spot to myself at one of the wooden picnic tables outside (they don’t have any inside seating except for a few bar stools – this definitely isn’t the place to come and eat when it’s raining, but since we are in a drought….) where I enjoyed an excellent pulled pork BBQ sandwich and fries.

The fries are fried in tallow, which definitely doesn’t taste like fries fried in canola oil. 🙂 They were excellent, freshly crisped up and not soggy at all.

The BBQ pork sandwich was also a keeper – it appears to have arrived with a mustard-based sauce, but I slathered it in their sweet BBQ sauce and the crisis was averted (I have a strong and completely irrational dislike for most condiments, including mustard, ketchup and mayo). The pork was flavorful and tender and moist – well cooked and seasoned!

Of all the BBQ I’ve had over the years in SF, I’d definitely have to put 4505 in the top 3, and I’d probably even have to give it the gold medal. So head on out to NOPA. Even if you don’t want to buy a house, you should treat yourself to an excellent burger or bite of BBQ.

Filed Under: Alamo Square, Blog, NOPA (North Panhandle), Places I Love to Eat

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Matt Fuller & Britton Jackson - Zephyr Real Estate


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